Good News for India's Wheat Harvest Despite Ongoing Heat

Despite sweltering conditions across India and Pakistan this April, India is expecting a good wheat harvest for 2025. This positive outlook comes after the region experienced the second hottest February on record and above-average temperatures in March.

Temperature Patterns, Not Just Heat

Our analysis of over 40 years of data shows that temperature swings—not just heat alone—are the real threat to wheat production. When temperatures shift dramatically from below-average during the winter months to early summer heat, the crop suffers most. Growth gets delayed and the crop is still in the crucial grain-filling period when temperatures build up.

This year, despite the intense heat, India has avoided the temperature volatility (both February and March were above average – our analysis didn’t identify a swing, see figure 1) that typically devastates yields. Additionally, the harvest has been spared from other major threats like pre-harvest rainfall and hail.

Figure 1 shows the temperature swings between February and March for four major wheat producing states in northern India. Orange lines represent a swing from colder to warmer between February and March. When this swing is extreme (> 2 degrees) and March temperatures are much warmer than usual (anomaly >2 degrees), risk of below average wheat yields increases significantly (as in 2010 and 2022). Recent 2025 temperatures are the furthest right.

Data source: ECMWF ERA5

Why This Matters

What happens to wheat production in India is important for the millions of smallholder farmers who need a stable income, and for urban consumers who depend on the crop for much of their dietary intake and require low prices. It also matters for global food trade.

India has evolved from a self-sufficient producer to becoming an increasingly important global wheat exporter, with shipments to Bangladesh, UAE, Indonesia, South Korea, and Ethiopia. While still topping just below 3% of global exports in 2021[1], India's March-April harvest provides crucial supply between the northern and southern hemisphere growing seasons.

This encouraging harvest outlook promises stability for domestic consumers while maintaining India's growing role in global food markets.

At Uncharted Waters, we help organizations navigate food system dynamics by tracking global production, trade, and storage. We work with WOTR, a leading Indian NGO, to provide farmers with information that helps them manage climate variability and market volatility. We combine process-based crop production simulations with machine learning powered trade flow modelling to analyse, in real time, the linkages between climate, water, crop production and food availability. We can deliver reliable, real-time information, fast. 

Forward-looking statements are based on the Uncharted Waters’ beliefs, as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to us. Because such statements are based on expectations as to future events and results and are not statements of fact, actual results may differ materially from those projected. All forward-looking statements reflect the beliefs and assumptions only as of the date such statements are made. We undertake no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect future events or circumstances. 

Analysis based on Uncharted Waters' digital twin of the global food system, combining process-based crop simulations with machine learning, to power our food trade flow model. Using ECMWF ERA5 climate data (1980-2025)

[1] In 2021. In more recent years exports reduced strongly due to lower overall production, highlighting India’s current position as a ‘pivot’ when it comes to food imports and exports