https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights daily 0.75 2026-04-02 https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/tracking-weather-impacts-on-global-coffee-markets monthly 0.5 2026-04-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/6ab4d4f2-1fe7-4329-bbe7-23e4289d5006/juliana-barquero-FpsB7Jo8nHk-unsplash_harvest+small.jpg Insights - Tracking Weather Impacts on Global Coffee Markets - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/beyond-the-numbers-what-the-2025-monsoon-meant-for-farmers-in-central-india monthly 0.5 2025-12-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/31a50a1d-415c-4441-abf3-6a9bb2674047/fields_b_ocean.jpg Insights - Beyond the Numbers: What the 2025 Monsoon Meant for Farmers in Central India - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/42310214-6c0c-4888-8eb8-adc0ae88c8e1/monsoon_rainfall_perceptions.png Insights - Beyond the Numbers: What the 2025 Monsoon Meant for Farmers in Central India - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/2c245f58-1acc-48a2-b67a-b1079b66a591/Monsoon+rainfall+anomaly.png Insights - Beyond the Numbers: What the 2025 Monsoon Meant for Farmers in Central India - Figure 2 Precipitation anomaly over the 2025 monsoon season (May-October 2025). Source: ERA5 ECMWF https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/trust-forecasts-and-action-how-farmers-navigate-monsoon-uncertainty monthly 0.5 2025-11-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/1db09d77-5048-44e8-b1b9-45b08dea9a97/India2010april_sky.jpg Insights - Trust, Forecasts, and Action: How Farmers Navigate Monsoon Uncertainty - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/38bd2a31-ffdc-483c-8df2-7b000c0b6d29/crops_merged_analysis_updated+no+nr.png Insights - Trust, Forecasts, and Action: How Farmers Navigate Monsoon Uncertainty - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/central-asias-snowpack-crisis-real-time-data-reveals-urgent-water-security-threats monthly 0.5 2025-10-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/e67eb686-ddc2-4a42-91ca-ed066dd3ed6a/AdobeStock_29699505_harvest_small.jpg Insights - Central Asia's Snowpack Crisis: Real-Time Data Reveals Urgent Water Security Threats - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/ac06ee51-5fbf-4bb2-aeb3-f2e30ccd1208/elevation.png Insights - Central Asia's Snowpack Crisis: Real-Time Data Reveals Urgent Water Security Threats - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/4a66ddaf-f075-4571-ab1b-367a1c605a81/Seasonal+pattern+three+periods.png Insights - Central Asia's Snowpack Crisis: Real-Time Data Reveals Urgent Water Security Threats - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/punjabs-extreme-monsoon-impact-on-basmati-rice-exports monthly 0.5 2025-10-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/09d14e02-193a-4f79-9004-5e9d8bcc8765/AdobeStock_396466855_ocean_small.png Insights - Punjab's Extreme Monsoon: Impact on Basmati Rice Exports - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/3cbe8e81-5ba0-41e4-bb7b-df34e1e9b7f3/Monthly+precipitation+and+August+extreme.png Insights - Punjab's Extreme Monsoon: Impact on Basmati Rice Exports - Figure 1 Monthly precipitation over India, compared to the historic average over the past 15 years (left). Forecasts represent expected precipitation based on current ENSO and IOD status. Extreme precipitation (blue gradient) is shown over north-western Indian, in red box, with quantiles indicating how often this amount of August precipitation is exceeded over the past 15 years (right). Source: ERA5 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/b7a861de-a213-40fa-9e26-ab508fcf4b4b/Yields+for+selected+Indian+states.png Insights - Punjab's Extreme Monsoon: Impact on Basmati Rice Exports - Figure 2 Yields (ton per hectare) for selected Indian states. In some, increase is accelerating (in red), in others it is linear. MP = Madhya Pradesh, UP = Uttar Pradesh, TG = Telangana, PB = Punjab. Source:Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Govt. of India https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/43ccce8d-d883-4b7b-a23d-fae9b54d0eef/Total+rice+production.png Insights - Punjab's Extreme Monsoon: Impact on Basmati Rice Exports - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/69acc4db-b10a-42b1-be73-2d7dd8b1caac/Per+capita+rice+imports+and+exports.png Insights - Punjab's Extreme Monsoon: Impact on Basmati Rice Exports - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/7aa175f2-4fef-4f06-8117-34ab1b80b9c9/India+rice+imports+and+exports.png Insights - Punjab's Extreme Monsoon: Impact on Basmati Rice Exports - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/uncharted-waters-food-security-indicator-q2-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-08-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/eb01daca-96a2-4cff-9ad8-6da6224b4a56/AdobeStock_627041244_harvest_small+2500w.jpg Insights - Uncharted Waters' Food Security Indicator - Q2 2025 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/1a57c825-e3bc-469e-89e5-9020131c367e/World2025Q2_2025-08-26+cropped.png Insights - Uncharted Waters' Food Security Indicator - Q2 2025 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/0df5dc50-2102-4610-953d-47bf06b3fada/AfricaChange_2025Q2_2025-08-26+cropped.png Insights - Uncharted Waters' Food Security Indicator - Q2 2025 - Figure 2: Change in Food Security Indicator from previous quarter. Orange indicates that the food security situation has declined while green indicates it has improved. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/good-news-for-indias-wheat-harvest-despite-ongoing-heat monthly 0.5 2025-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/1746588859777-SVJ5ZLIO6ZAFWU4EMFWJ/david-becker-R6LKOgXaNJg-unsplash-edit.jpg Insights - Good News for India's Wheat Harvest Despite Ongoing Heat - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/11bc3ed5-cd25-4cf8-a7b1-66be27de3632/Figure+temperature+swing+wheat+states.png Insights - Good News for India's Wheat Harvest Despite Ongoing Heat - Figure 1 shows the temperature swings between February and March for four major wheat producing states in northern India. Orange lines represent a swing from colder to warmer between February and March. When this swing is extreme (> 2 degrees) and March temperatures are much warmer than usual (anomaly >2 degrees), risk of below average wheat yields increases significantly (as in 2010 and 2022). Recent 2025 temperatures are the furthest right. Figure 1 shows the temperature swings between February (blue dots) and March (orange dots) for the six major wheat producing states in northern India. When the line is orange, this represents a swing from colder to warmer between February and March. When the swing is extreme, over 2 degrees and March temperatures are much warmer than usual (anomaly >2 degrees), risk of below average wheat yields increase significantly (as in e.g. 2010 and 2022). Data source: ECMWF ERA5 https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/uncharted-waters-food-security-indicator monthly 0.5 2025-08-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/0bafb33b-21fa-4f9f-879d-fc7f31f15d56/AdobeStock_396466855_sky_small.png Insights - Uncharted Waters’ Food Security Indicator - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/8b2b4b32-b606-4a6c-80aa-e2416adc6655/World_UWColours.png Insights - Uncharted Waters’ Food Security Indicator - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/942ec865-201e-4bce-a912-a76fe3da6040/Africa_UWColours.png Insights - Uncharted Waters’ Food Security Indicator - Figure 2: Food Security Indicator for Q4 2024 for sub-Saharan Africa. Lower scores (darker brown) indicate lower food security. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/e4e60e5d-caaf-4812-854c-f4911348fda7/AfricaChange_UWColours.png Insights - Uncharted Waters’ Food Security Indicator - Figure 3: Change in Food Security Indicator from previous quarter over sub-Saharan Africa. Brown indicates that the food security situation has declined while green indicates it has improved. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/climate-food-and-conflict-a-new-approach-to-risk-assessment monthly 0.5 2025-03-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/b80b9cc7-554f-447d-90ae-104d465b1cbd/AdobeStock_115894483_masked.png Insights - Climate, Food, and Conflict: A New Approach to Risk Assessment - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/359fbdaa-4082-46f5-ade5-b0f656c45e6d/Figure+conflict.png Insights - Climate, Food, and Conflict: A New Approach to Risk Assessment - Our simulated probability of conflict for the reference period, and for the year 2022. Probability of conflict for the reference period and a prediction (‘hindcast’) for 2022. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/food-security-in-africa-managing-water-will-be-vital-in-a-rapidly-growingnbspregion monthly 0.5 2025-01-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/60cedf0a-c97d-4be0-9f21-42a61b0284e5/ali-mkumbwa-XzgW_vYpm8M-unsplash-sky.jpg Insights - Food security in Africa: managing water will be vital in a rapidly growing region - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/can-sub-saharan-africa-feed-its-growing-cities monthly 0.5 2024-09-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/1e461aa7-a547-4409-8ccc-bbf526bb18b9/ali-mkumbwa-aMAoLRaZXZg-unsplash-sky.jpg Insights - Can Sub-Saharan Africa feed its growing cities? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/indian-chilies monthly 0.5 2025-01-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/7cfa16b1-3a5d-4c40-b1a1-da42a33bd7d2/market+orange.jpg Insights - A hot summer for Indian chilies - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/277fbae6-6575-4ca8-8892-b0a331758cb5/Figure+Map.png Insights - A hot summer for Indian chilies - Figure 1: Temperature anomaly (in K) over South Asia for May 2024, compared to the earlier decade. Source: ECMWF ERA5 2m temperature. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/0e01884f-9ced-4850-8946-cea140526094/Shipora+summer+2024+T+only+new+colours.png Insights - A hot summer for Indian chilies - Make it stand out Figure 2: Minimum and Maximum temperature recorded at a local weather station to support farmers with short term weather and cropping advice, in Jalna district, central Maharashtra, during March to May 2024 (source: WOTR automatic weather station), with in shading the historic 5-95% temperature range (source: ECMWF ERA5 2m temperature, https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/cd5e2d31-b339-4624-8c2c-41063fa2e30f/Chilli+plants.png Insights - A hot summer for Indian chilies - Make it stand out Green chili plants with white plastic mulch in Dhawale, Maharashtra, India https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/3234b52e-d6a4-494c-903e-220def154961/chillies+green.jpg Insights - A hot summer for Indian chilies - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/climate-crisis-cooks-up-costly-meals monthly 0.5 2024-04-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/224dcff4-9778-416a-9c32-6f25d3af039b/Thaali+orange.jpg Insights - Climate crisis cooks up costly meals: Why your 'thaali' could be on fire - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/uncharted-waters-wins-prestigious-palladium-challenge-fund-for-its-climate-responsive-digital-twin monthly 0.5 2024-04-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/ac89d319-4bb1-4cbe-bce4-b75b6c81ca90/cristian-palmer-3leBubkp5hk-unsplash-edit.jpg Insights - Uncharted Waters wins prestigious Palladium Challenge Fund for its climate-responsive digital twin - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.unchartedwaters.com/insights/a-critical-moment-for-indias-wheat-crop monthly 0.5 2025-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/c0f3fd81-5dfd-498a-994f-0e2e2a730736/david-becker-R6LKOgXaNJg-unsplash-edit.jpg Insights - Out in the cold: a critical moment for India’s wheat crop - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/3baa94eb-b9cf-4f95-bb92-262e5a06261f/Figure+Map.png Insights - Out in the cold: a critical moment for India’s wheat crop Box 1: Major wheat growing areas in South Asia, with the four dominant wheat growing states in India named (source: mapspam) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/af02df4e-f34b-42fa-ae34-48022380f329/Punjab+UWlight.jpg Insights - Out in the cold: a critical moment for India’s wheat crop Figure 2: Swings in temperature anomalies between February and March, when the wheat crop is in its grain-filling period (source: ECMWF’s ERA5). A positive(negative) anomaly means the average temperature in that month was higher(lower) than the mean temperature of the previous 30 years. The orange lines illustrate swings from below average conditions in February to above average conditions in March (blue the reverse). Rather than absolute high temperatures over the growing season, these large changes in temperature appear to impact crop yield most, especially in the traditional wheat growing states in the northwest (this shows Punjab - similar swings are observed in other northern major wheat growing states). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65c60693ed8ae44c17e6713c/53522139-3454-4f5a-837f-ee5486c6eadf/Yield+all+four+UWlight.png Insights - Out in the cold: a critical moment for India’s wheat crop - Figure 3: Yield increase over time (in ton per hectare. source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, GoI & Reserve Bank of India (2022-2023 is the third advanced estimate). A clear contrast can be observed between Punjab and Haryana, India’s top growing states where yields are higher but not increasing much, and emerging states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which have historically reported much lower yields but have been rapidly increasing output in recent years. In Punjab and Haryana, adverse climate conditions seem to limit further yield growth. Below average yield in 2010 and 2022 (in orange) can be explained by extreme high March temperatures following a cooler winter (a difference between Feb and March anomalies – the swing - of more than 2ᵒC and March anomalies exceeding 2ᵒC). Extreme hail damage affected the crop in 2015 across all states (in yellow). High temperatures increase both moisture in the air and convective instability, raising hailstorm likelihood and creating larger hailstones. In most regions in the world, hailstorm severity is expected to increase with climate change⁷. Figure 3: Yield increase over time (in ton per hectare. source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, GoI & Reserve Bank of India (2022-2023 is the third advanced estimate). A clear contrast can be observed between Punjab and Haryana, India’s top growing states where yields are higher but not increasing much, and emerging states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which have historically reported much lower yields but have been rapidly increasing output in recent years. In Punjab and Haryana, adverse climate conditions seem to limit further yield growth. Below average yield in 2010 and 2022 (in orange) can be explained by extreme high March temperatures following a cooler winter. Extreme hail damage affected the crop in 2015 across all states (in yellow, when the difference between Feb and March anomalies – the swing - is more than 2ᵒC and March anomalies exceed 2ᵒC). High temperatures increase both moisture in the air and convective instability, raising hailstorm likelihood and creating larger hailstones. 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